(Article of periodic en Anglais - 2013)

Document title

Deriving probabilistic based climate scenarios using pattern scaling and statistically downscaled data : A case study application from Ireland

Authors(s) and Affiliation(s)

FEALY R. (1) ;
(1) National Univ., Maynooth, IRLANDE


This paper adopts a technique common in the dynamical climate modelling literature, that of pattern scaling, and applies it to previously available statistically downscaled station level data for Ireland for two climatically relevant variables, that of temperature and precipitation. This technique allows for the rapid development of climate scenarios for additional emissions scenarios not previously available from the GCM modelling centres. On the basis of the Monte Carlo approach, probability distribution functions (pdfs) of simulated changes in temperature and precipitation were constructed and compared to the original statistically downscaled data. The methodology and results presented represent a significant contribution to the traditional approach of statistical downscaling through the development of associated likelihoods, rather than just a change in the mean value


Article of periodic

published at : Progress in physical geography / ISSN 0309-1333 / CODEN PPGEEC

Editor : Sage Publications, London - ROYAUME-UNI (1977)

Millesime : 2013, vol. 37, no2 [pp. 178-205]

Bibliographic references : 3 p.

Collation : 7 fig., 2 tabl.



INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 14648 A

Digital Object Identifier

Go to electronic document thanks to its DOI : doi:10.1177/0309133312462935

Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 2013
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