(Article of periodic en Anglais - 2013)

Document title

Modeling policy and agricultural decisions in Afghanistan

Authors(s) and Affiliation(s)

WIDENER M.J. (1) ; BAR-YAM Y. (2) ; GROS A. (2) ; METCALF S.S. (1) ;
(1) Dept. of Geography, Univ., Buffalo, ETATS-UNIS
(2) New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, ETATS-UNIS


This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates policy scenarios to characterize how the production of poppy can be dampened and replaced with licit crops over time. The model is initialized with spatial data, including transportation network and satellite-derived land use data. It shows that boundary-level interventions, such as targeted trafficking blockades at border locations, are critical in reducing the attractiveness of growing this illicit crop. The principle of least effort implies that interventions decrease to a minimal non-regressive point, leading to the prediction that increases in insurgency or other changes are likely to lead to worsening conditions, and improvements require substantial jumps in intervention resources


Article of periodic

published at : GeoJournal / ISSN 0343-2521 / CODEN GEOJDQ

Editor : Springer, Heidelberg - ALLEMAGNE (1977)

Millesime : 2013, vol. 78, no4 [pp. 591-599]

Bibliographic references : 31 ref.



INIST-CNRS, Cote INIST : 17887

Digital Object Identifier

Go to electronic document thanks to its DOI : doi:10.1007/s10708-012-9453-y

Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 2013
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