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(Article of periodic en Anglais - 2013)

Document title

Climate change – it’s all about probability

Authors(s) and Affiliation(s)

PAETH H. (1) ; STEGER C. (1) ; MERKENSCHLAGER C. (2) ;
(1) Institute of Geography and Geology Univ., Würzburg, ALLEMAGNE
(2) Dept. of Geography, Univ., Augsburg, ALLEMAGNE

Abstract

In this paper, the AA expose what they already know of the characteristics of the probability density function of climate change from coordinated climate modelling initiatives and what probabilistic statements can be derived from the quantification and evaluation of climate change in a regional and seasonal context. The first aspect addresses the changing occurrence of heat events with a relatively long return period in past climate. The second issue deals with the distinctness of past and future climates in the light of uncertainty. The third problem is dedicated to so-called probabilistic climate predictions in the form of overshooting and undershooting probabilities given various thresholds of climate change. Overall, probabilistic assessments in climate change research allow for the quantification of uncertainty and, hence, provide valuable information for decision processes

Source

Article of periodic

published at : Erdkunde / ISSN 0014-0015

Editor : Boss, Kleve - ALLEMAGNE (1947)

Millesime : 2013, vol. 67, no3 [pp. 203-222]

Bibliographic references : 3 p.

Collation : 11 fig., 5 tabl

Language

Anglais

Tous droits réservés © Prodig - Bibliographie Géographique Internationale (BGI), 2014
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